The big news in the Middle East of the last two weeks dealt with the assassination of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai. The official story was jumbled from the get go, with the Globe and Mail reporting he was killed by a bodyguard, while other news outlets such as the Irish Times and Al Jazeera reporting an aide had killed him. What makes the situation more confusing is that Ahmed Karzai was a known drug lord being groomed by President Karzai to become the governor of Kandahar, meaning that he might have been killed over politics or by order of a rival drug lord.

                There are two clear winners from Ahmed Wali Karzai's death. The first, of course, is the Taliban forces who were immediately blamed for the assassination, and who immediately took credit for the act. The Taliban claim that they nurtured a relationship with the suspected assassin and convinced him to make a suicidal shooting attempt. The Karzai government and the Taliban are mostly comprised of rival Pashtun tribes, who have been trading alliances and fighting a country-wide civil war against one another for decades. Karzai's brother was placed in charge of the region around Kandahar in the hopes of pulling more Pashtun support from the Taliban to President Karzai's government centered in Kabul. President Karzai still does not control most of the country and was leaning strongly on his brother for help.

See here for background on Karzai, the Taliban, and Pashtun Civil War:

http://www.tribalanalysiscenter.com/PDF-TAC/Pashtun%20Tribalism%20and%20Ethnic%20Nationalism.pdf

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=10150096232528689

                The United States government also depended upon Ahmed Karzai, and his loss represents a blow to the US military and CIA. At first, the State Department saw him as a detriment to progress in Afghanistan due to gross allegations of corruption. However, as President Karzai resisted pressure to remove his brother from power, the US government decided to get used to his presence and strengthen their relationship with Ahmed Karzai. This is a relatively new development, so his assassination comes at a bad time since it is now perceived that he was an important ally. According to a New York Times article in 2009, Ahmed Karzai was considered a CIA asset and on their payroll. (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/world/asia/28intel.html?pagewanted=all)

                General Petraeus strengthened his own relationship with Ahmed Karzai back in 2010, pushing for greater aid to help strengthen control in the southern part of Afghanistan. Now Petraeus is leaving his militay command in order to take over the reins of the CIA, meaning a greater power vacuum in south Afghanistan. Since Ahmed Karzai was not liked by leaders around Kandahar, the United States will have a harder time trying to regain lost influence.

See here for background on Petraeus' relationship with Ahmed Karzai, and NATO's concerns with Karzai's corrupt regional activities:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7118538.ece

http://my.firedoglake.com/ctuttle/2010/05/10/petraeus-and-nato-get-in-bed-with-wali-karzai/

                The other beneficiary of Ahmed Karzai's death are the various drug lords involved in Afghanistan's opium trade. For years the Karzai family has been involved in the narcotics trade and has profited handsomely from it. Ahmed Karzai was the leader of the family drug trade and grew a large enough power base that he was nicknamed "The King of Kandahar". This connection created a number of rivals, especially because US troops were used to shut down rival drug dealers while the Karzai family put pressure on American soldiers to release drugs owned by the Karzai family, allowing them to swiftly control Afghanistan's illegal trade(http://www.stateofpakistan.org/karzai-protecting-drug-lords-ny-times).

See here for information on the Karzai family narcotics business:

http://www.politicolnews.com/karzai-brothers-drug-deals/

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/28/eveningnews/main5439648.shtml

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/world/asia/05afghan.html?pagewanted=all

                Ahmed Karzai also made many political enemies during his rise to power in the Kandahar area. Mr. Karzai created a militia unit with the help of American funds called the Kandahar Strike Force, which was intended by the US government to fight the Taliban. The Kandahar Strike Force was further aided by General Petraeus' arming of Afghan militias that were chosen not by village, but instead by suggestions from the Karzai family and allied tribes. There are allegations that such groups were used more often to protect the Karzai family's financial interests than to fight the Taliban. For instance, Ahmed Karzai used the western armed Kandahar Strike Force to shut down business rivals, to forcibly extract protection money and to attack political opponents (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1933094,00.html).

                So there are certainly three different groups that would have liked to see Ahmed Karzai dead. The Taliban, rival drug lords, and Afghan political leaders in the south. The official story (from the surviving security guards) is that a security guard or aide named Sardar Mohammed shot and killed Ahmed Karzai. However, Sardar Mohammed was killed soon after by bodyguards of Mr. Karzai. But different agencies including Kandahar officials and the CIA cast doubt on that story, saying that Sardar Mohammed was a trusted friend and ally of the Karzai family. This means that the bodyguards may have killed both men and spun the tale that Sardar Mohammed was a Taliban agent, which the Taliban readily agreed to for PR purposes.

See here for the news stories that cast doubt on whether Sardar Mohammed killed Ahmed Karzai:

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/07/12/the-assassination-of-ahmed-wali-karzai-careful-what-you-wish-for/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/12/ahmed-wali-karzai-assassination-consequences

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/12/who_killed_ahmed_wali_karzai

                It has not been a good month for President Hamid Karzai. The brother he depended upon to regain stability of southern Afghanistan has been assassinated. Afghanistan's Central Bank lead, the equivalent to America's Ben Bernanke, has fled to the United States after his embezzlement of the country's finances resulted in an attempt to have him arrested. The Central Bank lead, Abdul Qadir Fitrat, had knowledge about the useage of the government bank's funds to finance President Karzai's successful re-election. Two other influential men were also sadly assassinated, most likely by the Taliban, Parliament member Hashim Watanwal and Kandahar police chief General Khan Mohammad Mujahid. President Karzai and the United States government are finding themselves on the defensive, especially in Kandahar region. It's a tipping point, as the fight here escalates. What comes next is anyone's guess. But with the current news dominated by the Budget deficit farce, the European Union financial crisis, and the corruption case of Rupert Murdoch's (owner of Fox News) business dealings, the news of what is going on out here will likely be drowned in the numerous chaotic headlines.

Here is information on the Central Banker that fled to the United States: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576411930841416682.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-afghan-central-banker-who-fled-the-country-after-either-bank-corruption-or-a-death-plot-2011-6

Here is information on recent assassinations:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2011/0718/The-wave-of-Afghan-assassinations-underscores-a-complicated-security-situation

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vanda-felbabbrown/implications-of-the-assas_b_906014.html

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Stay Free,

James Quigley